TWL Rd 23 Preview: Metcalf gets the keys for all-time regular season blockbuster
A late enforced change at halfback has created yet more anticipation around the Warriors' massive home clash with the heavyweight Panthers.
WARRIORS V PENRITH PANTHERS – 8PM (NZT)/6PM (AEST) FRIDAY, AUGUST 7 @ GO MEDIA MOUTN SMART STADIUM, AUCKLAND
The Storylines
This is a showdown brimming with rich narratives — and somehow the most captivating one dropped into our lap 24 hours out from kick-off.
The rugby league world’s eyes are firmly fixed on our hallowed patch of grass at Penrose, and Luke Metcalf’s promotion to the Warriors’ starting line-up following Te Maire Martin’s withdrawal adds another fascinating edge to Friday night’s showdown with Nathan Cleary’s NRL-leading Penrith Panthers.
The teams’ absolute barnburner in Sydney in Round 13 (albeit with a handful of Origin players missing) whet the appetite for this one, which as it stands is the bookies’ third favourite to be the grand final match-up.
The high-flying outfits slipped into a bit of a funk after that instant classic, each suffering three losses apiece in the ensuing seven rounds. But both rocketed back to form in Round 22 against bottom-half teams that had been playing good footy: the Warriors lapped the Titans 42-6 on the Gold Coast and the Panthers overwhelmed the Raiders 42-18 in Mudgee.
Warriors-Panthers matches always entail something a little extra with Ivan Cleary in the opposing coach’s box, particularly since former assistant Andrew Webster took charge of our team. Meanwhile, there’s four ex-Panthers in the Warriors’ starting line-up and a couple of former Warriors in the Penrith line-up.
A Warriors upset would throw the minor premiership race wide open — particularly with the Panthers due to take on the second-placed Roosters next week.
Last but absolutely not least, it’s Indigenous Round, always a special one for every team and an occasion the Warriors always do so well at home.
Ins and Outs
The Warriors have retained Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad at fullback despite the availability of Taine Tuaupiki, who has been included on the six-man bench. Leka Halasima also stays at centre in what was an unchanged starting 13 named on Tuesday.
Luke Metcalf is catapulted into the halfback hotseat with Te Maire Martin (hamstring) a scratching 24 hours out.
Morgan Gannon was a surprise inclusion on the interchange, with last week’s club debutant Riley Price named as the reserve. Demitric Vaimauga remains sidelined with a rib complaint.
Arguably the Panthers’ two best players in their win over the Warriors in Round 13, Casey McLean has been ruled out and Dylan Edwards misses his third straight game.
Izack Tago comes in at centre, while rookie Jaxen Edgar remains at fullback. Jack Cogger — another standout in the No.7 when these teams last met — has been retained at five-eighth ahead of Blaize Talagi.
Unused last week with Tago taking up an interchange spot and Freddy Lussick playing the full 80 at hooker, Billy Scott will be looking to make his sixth NRL appearance in the No.14 jersey.
The History
Overall record: Played 55 – Penrith won 35, Warriors won 19, draws 1; Penrith scored 1,423 points, Warriors scored 1,131 points.
Biggest wins: Penrith – 62-6 at Centrebet Stadium, 2013; Warriors – 52-8 at Mt Smart Stadium, 2001.
Longest winning streaks: Penrith – 8 matches (2019-23); Warriors – 4 matches (2010-12).
Finals: Played 4 – Penrith won 4.
Most appearances: Simon Mannering (Warriors) – 21; James Fisher-Harris (Penrith and Warriors) – 20; Isaah Yeo (Penrith) – 19; Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (Penrith and Warriors) – 18; Craig Gower (Penrith) – 17; Shaun Johnson (Warriors) – 17; Stacey Jones (Warriors) – 17; Moses Leota (Penrith) – 17; Manu Vatuvei (Warriors) – 16; Jacob Lillyman (Warriors) – 15; Tony Puleuta (Penrith) – 15; Sam Rapira (Warriors) – 15;Luke Lewis (Penrith) – 14; Josh Mansour (Penrith) – 14; Ben Matulino (Warriors) – 14; Trent Waterhouse (Penrith) – 14.
Most tries: Manu Vatuvei (Warriors) – 12; Luke Rooney (Penrith) – 10; Rhys Wesser (Penrith) – 10; Ryan Girdler (Penrith) – 9; David Fusitu’a (Warriors) – 8; Tyrone Peachey (Penrith) – 8; Josh Mansour (Penrith) – 8; Brian To’o (Penrith) – 8; Logan Swann (Warriors) – 7.
Most points: Ryan Girdler (Penrith) – 113; Nathan Cleary (Penrith) – 96; Preston Campbell (Penrith) – 80; Michael Gordon (Penrith) – 76; Shaun Johnson (Warriors) – 72; James Maloney (Warriors and Penrith) – 62; Manu Vatuvei (Warriors) – 48; Luke Walsh (Penrith) – 48.
THE RIVALRY: WARRIORS V PANTHERS
The Warriors’ seesawing rivalry with the Penrith Panthers includes two shared coaches (three if you count a Panthers assistant who returned to take the head coach reins at the Warriors), several stars who have turned out for both clubs, four finals matches and a truckload of points. But after 32 seasons, it’s the Panthers who hold a commanding advantage after getting the better of the Warriors over the past decade.
The Stats
The Panthers have won 11 of their last 12 against the Warriors.
The Warriors have not beaten the Panthers in New Zealand since 2018, or a team containing Nathan Cleary since 2019.
The Warriors have scored more than 18 points just once in their last 12 games against the Panthers, in their 22-20 Magic Round win in 2024.
The Warriors and Dolphins are the only teams the Panthers have not managed to score 30 points against in their last four encounters.
Only one of the last 14 Panthers-Warriors clashes has produced more than 46 points.
Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, who played 106 games for Penrith, has never scored a try in 13 games against the Panthers.
Alofiana Khan-Pereira scored a try in all three of his appearances against the Panthers to date.
Brian To’o has scored eight tries in his last seven games against the Warriors.
The Panthers are ranked first (30.58) and the Warriors third (28.32) for points scored per game.
The Panthers are ranked first (14.37) and the Warriors second (16.42) for points conceded per game.
The Warriors have a 3-14 record in Indigenous Round, second-worst in the NRL behind the Dolphins (0-4). The Panthers rank third with a 13-5 record.
5 Key Match-ups
Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad vs Jaxen Edgar: CNK made a sensational return to the No.1 jersey against the Titans and could really cement the spot again with an influential display agains the NRL’s benchmark. The 20-year-old Edgar has looked the goods over the last two rounds, but the Warriors will undoubtedly look to pile pressure on the rookie…and it’s a relief to not see Dylan Edwards at the back.
Dallin Watene-Zelezniak vs Tom Jenkins: DWZ’s 18 tries from 18 games is outstanding by any measure — but Jenkins’ otherworldly 28 tries in 19 games sets up a mouth-watering duel. They both went try-less last time out and Dallin has an amazing record of his opposing wingers not scoring in 2026, while he has run for over 200 metres in his last three games.
Luke Metcalf vs Nathan Cleary: You have to feel for Metcalf — his first NRL game in four months, his first in the top-grade halfback spot in over 400 days and his first game of any description in three weeks…and it’s in the biggest regular-season game imaginable while playing in a team containing Nathan Cleary for the very first time. But Metcalf has spoken ad nauseum about his self-confidence and desire to be shot-caller, the go-to man…after a tumultuous season to date, he won’t get a better opportunity to prove himself.
James Fisher Harris vs Moses Leota: Honours were relativley even when the four-time grand final-winning front-row hombres and Kiwi Test teammates met in Round 13 — Fisher-Harris had the superior numbers, but Leota got the win. JFH had one of his quieter games of a stellar season last week, but he will leave nothing in the tank against his former club.
Erin Clark vs Isaah Yeo: Clark was in everything last week after an uncharacteristically anonymous display against the Bulldogs — setting up tries with kicks, firing up his ball-playing game and racking up hefty numbers. The Warriors need him to provide a point of difference tonight. Yeo, who sat out the match 10 weeks ago, is such an important and unwaveringly reliable cog in the Penrith machine.
Last Time They Met
The absence of five State of Origin players could not detract from Round 13’s top-of-the-table showdown as Penrith and the Warriors delivered arguably the match of 2026 so far — but it was the Panthers that came away with a pulsating 20-18 result.
The Warriors fought back from a 16-6 deficit after a first half of missed opportunities and surged into the lead, but ultimately they could not quite get enough of the pivotal, knife’s edge moments right.
A Casey McLean masterclass — exacerbated by a rough 40 minutes for opposite Ali Leiataua — and a pair of justifiably disallowed Warriors tries told the story of the first half. The Warriors’ ability to rally and do everything but win it was massively encouraging. Te Maire Martin and Taine Tuaupiki came up with huge plays, their scramble defence shone and their middle forwards again stood tall.
The Panthers just did enough of the same things a little better, a fraction more often, and regained the lead with 10 minutes left. As a spectacle, it was a belter and top-shelf quality. Both teams completed at around 90 percent and there was almost nothing in virtually every stat category.
TWL Rd 13: Kingz Container Crew Warriors Player Ratings
The absence of five State of Origin players could not detract from Sunday night’s top-of-the-table showdown as Penrith and the Warriors delivered arguably the match of 2026 so far — but it was the Pa…
Why the Wahs will win: The Warriors gained plenty of confidence from their showdown with the Panthers in Sydney, rebounded to form at the right time last week, and the injection of CNK, Halasima and now Metcalf to a line-up that was feeling a little tired could prove the difference against the league’s best defence.
Why the Wahs will lose: Because the Panthers hardly ever lose — and it’s even rarer that they lose to us. They also blew out the cobwebs in ominous fashion last week but will have no problem rolling up the sleeves for a typical Mount Smart slugfest in a match likely to played with finals-like intensity. The Cleary factor is impossible to overlook.
The Punt: Head to head — Warriors $2.35, Panthers $1.60; Points Start — Warriors +3.5; Total Points Over/Under — 41.5
Best Anytime Tryscorer Options — Alofiana Khan-Pereira ($2.10), Paul Alamoti ($3.25), Leka Halasima ($3.25), Luke Metcalf ($4.00), Isaiah Papalii ($5.00), Wayde Egan ($6.80)
The Verdict: The Warriors are absolutely a chance here, but they’ll have to execute a lot better than they have in recent outings at Go Media Stadium — every chance has to be converted, because there won’t be many. So much hinges on the hapless Metcalf, too. There’s more pressure on the Warriors to prove they can match it with the best ahead of the bigger games in September and they need to harness the electric home-crowd atmosphere. Heart says they can do it, but head says… Panthers by 7