TWL Rd 20 Preview: Warriors keep minor premiership in sight as unfancied Saints come to town
The second-placed Wahs host the wooden spoon-bound Dragons on Saturday night...is this a banana skin game or a foregone beatdown?
WARRIORS V DRAGONS - 7.35PM (NZT)/5.35PM (AEST) SATURDAY, JULY 18 @ GO MEDIA STADIUM, AUCKLAND
The Storylines
Emerging from a tough four-match section of their schedule that garnered one win and three losses to fellow contenders, the Warriors move on to the second leg of a soft four-game stretch — having cruised to a 32-6 win over spiralling Wests Tigers in Campbelltown last Friday.
With this weekend’s home clash against last-placed St George Illawarra followed by away games against stragglers Canterbury and Gold Coast, there’s a gilt-edged opportunity for the Warriors to cement a top-two spot…and maybe even stay in the frame for the minor premiership with Penrith (their post-Titans opponent) enduring a few recent stumbles.
But as the Panthers’ three losses to down-on-form Queensland clubs proves, no team can afford to take any game lightly — and the Dragons have moved in the right direction since the horrors of their 0-11 start.
After a convincing 30-12 loss to the Warriors on a miserable night at Kogarah in Round 12, the Dragons broke their duck in rousing fashion against the Broncos in Brisbane. Three honourable losses to the Sharks, Knights and Raiders followed, before they doused a desperate Tigers side 24-10 in their most recent outing.
The Warriors will be aiming to tidy up the below-par discipline and completion rate they dished up against the Tigers, as well as converting more opportunities after making 12 line-breaks.
To help them do that, three key veterans return from rep duty and injury, while Andrew Webster’s side will be keen to deliver in just their second game at Mount Smart in three months.
Ins and Outs
Origin forwards Mitch Barnett and Kurt Capewell are back for the Warriors, along with star winger Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, who pushes Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad out of the side. Jackson Ford is the only top-liner still to return to the side from the casualty ward.
The Dragons are unchanged, though Moses Suli is included on the bench after a NSW Cup return in Round 18. They have Blake Lawrie and Jadyn Su’A on the injured list.
The History
Overall record: Played 40 – St George Illawarra won 24, Warriors won 16; St George Illawarra scored 893 points, Warriors scored 698 points.
Biggest wins: St George Illawarra – 54-0 at WIN Stadium, 2000; Warriors – 48-18 at WIN Stadium, 2023.
Longest winning streaks: St George Illawarra – 11 matches (2008-15); Warriors – 5 matches (2018-21).
Finals: None.
Most appearances: Ben Creagh (St George Illawarra) – 16; Jack de Belin (St George Illawarra) – 16; Simon Mannering (Warriors) – 15; Jason Nightingale (St George Illawarra) – 15; Matt Cooper (St George Illawarra) – 14; Ben Hornby (St George Illawarra) – 14; Shaun Johnson (Warriors) – 14; Leeson Ah Mau (Warriors and St George Illawarra) – 13; Bunty Afoa (Warriors) – 12; Jacob Lillyman (Warriors) – 12; Ben Matulino (Warriors) – 11; Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (Warriors) – 11; Manu Vatuvei (Warriors) – 11.
Most tries: Matt Cooper (St George Illawarra) – 11; Nathan Blacklock (St George Illawarra) – 10; Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (Warriors) – 9; Jason Nightingale (St George Illawarra) – 8.
Most points: Shaun Johnson (Warriors) – 70; Jamie Soward (St George Illawarra) – 64; Zac Lomax (St George Illawarra) – 62; Gareth Widdop (St George Illawarra) – 55; Matt Cooper (St George Illawarra) – 44; Nathan Blacklock (St George Illawarra) – 42; Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (Warriors) – 36; Jason Nightingale (St George Illawarra) – 32.
THE RIVALRY: WARRIORS V DRAGONS
The Auckland Warriors endured their troubles against the St George Dragons and Illawarra Steelers early in the club’s existence – and that was only exacerbated by the St George Illawarra Dragons merger in 1999. The Warriors’ success rate against the joint venture was their worst against any current club, including an away losing streak that lasted 15 years, but they have turned the tables since 2018.
The Stats
The Warriors have won five of their last six against the Dragons, including a 30-12 victory at Kogarah in Round 12.
The Saints’ last victory at Mount Smart was in 2011.
The teams’ last five encounters at Mount Smart all produced 37 points or less. In the last two, the Warriors made hard work of victories in 2023 (18-6) and 2025 (14-10).
The Warriors are a modest 3-2 at Go Media Stadium this season.
The Dragons are ranked last for points scored (15.25) and points conceded (30.19) per game in 2026.
The Warriors are ranked second for points scored (29.38) and points conceded (17.25) in the NRL this season.
Valentine Holmes has scored six tries in his last five games, joining Setu Tu atop the Dragons’ tryscoring standings (8).
Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (16 tries in 15 games) and Alofiana Khan-Pereira (11 tries in nine games) are both scoring at better than a try a game in 2026.
DWZ has nine tries in nine games for the Warriors against the Saints; AKP has four tries in five career games versus the Red V.
5 Key Match-ups
Alofiana Khan-Pereira vs Setu Tu: AKP returned from a four-week absence with a double against the Tigers — his fifth in just nine appearances for the club. He also torched the Saints for a brace in Round 12 opposite Setu Tu, who scored the first try of that clash and will relish the chance for a belated NRL outing at the ground he played a ton of NSW Cup at.
Ali Leiataua vs Valentine Holmes: These teams’ encounter eight weeks ago kick-started a run of shaky defensive performances from Leiataua, who made a terrible read that night to allow Holmes to set up a try. Ali had some good and bad moments against the Tigers — but it was a positive step forward after a shocker against the Dolphins. Pilloried early this season, Holmes has been in great touch as the Saints have improved.
Te Maire Martin vs Kyle Flanagan: TMM makes his 50th appearance for the Warriors — the first time the journeyman has chalked up that milestone at a club. And the 30-year-old has never played better, coming up with big moments in every game since being pitched into the No.7 hotseat; he boasts four tries and eight try assists in seven games. Flanagan remains one of the NRL’s most maligned players and limited halfbacks, but effort-wise he can’t be faulted.
Jacob Laban vs Hamish Stewart: Laban has been one of the NRL’s form forwards and the Warriors’ best player over the past four or five weeks, coming of age as an attacking weapon while maintaining a sky-high work-rate. Stewart epitomises the group of promising, industrious forward tyros in the Dragons’ ranks, but he will have his hands full opposite Laban.
Erin Clark vs Ryan Couchman: Clark has stepped up his game again lately and was very prominent on attack against the Tigers, helping lay on two tries as well as bending the line back frequently and making a pile of tackles. Couchman, along with twin Toby, has developed into a young leader in the middle for the Saints and averages 42 tackles and 128 metres a game.
Last time they met
In the rain at Kogarah, under a pile of errors and six-agains, the Warriors did what they had to go to put away struggling but fired-up St George Illawarra 30-12 — scoring six tries to two.
Effort on defence underpinned a victory in what was a hard watch but the sort of wins good teams need to chalk up as they make their way through the long slog of a 27-round season.
The Warriors back-three and trio of starting middles were the Kingz Container Crew player ratings standouts.
TWL Rd 12: Kingz Container Crew Warriors Player Ratings
That'll do. In the rain at Kogarah, under a pile of errors and six-agains, the Warriors did what they had to go to put away struggling but fired-up St George Illawarra 30-12 — scoring six tries to tw…
Why the Wahs Will Win: They’re a superior team across almost every position and are set to steamroll the young Saints in the middle of the park. The Warriors’ prolific wingers will reap the benefits if Martin, Tuaupiki and co. deliver the same crisp ball-playing they have been.
Why the Wahs Will Lose: Seemingly only complacency can bring the Warriors undone, though the Dragons have turned a corner over the last six weeks and have caused some unexpected problems for finals-bound Warriors teams at this venue over the past few seasons.
The Punt: Head to Head — Warriors $1.16, Dragons $5.25; Line — Warriors -16.5; Total Points Line — Over/Under 47.5 Points
Best Anytime Tyrscorer Options — Taine Tuaupiki $2.55; Ali Leiataua $2.55; Valentine Holmes $3.10; Tyrell Sloan $2.70; Jacob Laban $3.60; Demitric Vaimauga $8.00
The Verdict: The Warriors can’t get ahead of themselves — but with three experienced heads back in the line-up and raring to go in a rare Mount Smart assignment, this shapes as a straightforward opportunity to consolidate second spot and give that handsome for-and-against another sizeable boost. Warriors by 20