The Storylines
The best regular season campaign in the Warriors’ 32-year history — an unprecedented 18 wins and an NRL-high, unprecedented tally of points — has culminated in a home qualifying final against the dangerous Dolphins.
After their peak showing against Penrith in Round 23 that put the rest of the premiership on notice, the Warriors finished the home-and-away rounds with three high-scoring wins over Souths (45-26), a 12-man Newcastle (46-32) and Manly (31-30) where their defensive standards fell away dramatically.
But they were also handicapped by constant changes in the halves and in the three-quarter line, while also doing enough to win those games via relentless attack and forward dominance.
The Dolphins are on finals debut in their fourth season, recovering from a horrific 66-0 loss to Cronulla to win their last seven games and finish third. Their late-season form spiked with a Round 26 win over the Roosters, but Kristian Woolf’s side was largely unimpressive scraping past Gold Coast 24-20 last weekend.
The overwhelming narrative from across the Tasman this week is the Dolphins are the team arguably most capable of exposing the defensive cracks that have emerged recently. But Andrew Webster has remained publicly unperturbed, claiming its an easy fix.
A jam-packed Go Media Stadium gives the Warriors their best opportunity to end an 18-year week one finals drought, with a home preliminary final fixture only an authoritative 80-minute performance away.
Ins and Outs
Jackson Ford returns from a 12-week layoff on the Warriors’ bench, bumping Eddie Ieremia-Toeava to the No.18 jersey.
Leka Halasima, Wayde Egan and Kurt Capewell return from a week off, while Taine Tuaupiki retains the fullback spot with Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad staying on injured DWZ’s wing.
A full-strength Dolphins side welcomes back Selwyn Cobbo, Kodi Nikorima and Kulikefu Finefeuaki from one-week injury layoffs. Jake Averillo, Brian Pouniu and Tevita Naufahu all drop to the reserves.
The History
Overall record: Played 8 – Warriors won 4, Dolphins won 4; Warriors scored 174 points, Dolphins scored 172 points.
Biggest wins: Dolphins – won 34-10 at Suncorp Stadium, 2023; Warriors – won 30-8 at Mount Smart Stadium, 2023.
Longest winning streaks: 1 match.
Finals: None
Most appearances: Jamayne Isaako (Dolphins) – 8; Isaiya Katoa (Dolphins) – 8; Connelly Lemuelu (Dolphins) – 8; Mitchell Barnett (Warriors) – 7; Kodi Nikorima (Dolphins) – 7; Marata Niukore (Warriors) – 7; Ray Stone (Dolphins) – 7; Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (Dolphins) – 7; Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (Warriors) – 7.
Most tries: Jamayne Isaako (Dolphins) – 9; Herbie Farnworth (Dolphins) – 7; Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (Warriors) – 7.
Most points: Jamayne Isaako (Dolphins) – 82; Herbie Farnworth (Dolphins) – 28; Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (Warriors) – 28; Shaun Johnson (Warriors) – 18.
THE RIVALRY: WARRIORS V DOLPHINS
The Warriors’ youngest rivalry has already featured a golden point edition, a heroic short-handed upset and a last-minute match-winner.
The Stats
The Warriors have lost five of their last six finals matches.
The Warriors have not won a week one finals match since 2008, losing five straight since.
The last six Warriors-Dolphins matches were decided by four points or less.
Six of the teams’ eight clashes produced totals of 44 points or less.
Jamayne Isaako has scored nine tries in eight games for the Dolphins against the Warriors; Herbie Farnworth has scored seven tries in six games in the rivalry and Dallin Watene-Zelezniak has seven tries in seven games.
The Warriors are ranked first in the NRL in attack (30.33 points per game) and second defensively (17.41), while the Dolphins are fifth (27.58) and fourth (21.08), respectively.
The Warriors are on a six-match winning streak; the Dolphins have won their last seven games.
The Warriors are 7-2 at Go Media Stadium in 2026, winning their last four.
The Dolphins are 5-3 outside Queensland this season.
5 Key Match-ups
Taine Tuaupiki vs Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow: The Warriors fullback debate continues to swirl, but Tuaupiki gets the nod with DWZ leaving a gap on the wing for CNK to fill. Tuaupiki was brilliant at Mount Smart last week with a dazzling hat-trick — but the consensus is the Warriors are not as strong as a defensive collective with the livewire at the back. ‘The Hammer’ has proved an elite big-game player at Origin level, but his only previous finals matches were off the bench for the Cowboys in 2022.
Leka Halasima vs Jack Bostock: Bostock gave Adam Pompey a bath last time out and is yet to suffer a loss at any level in 2026. But he’s coming off a dusty showing against the Titans — and this time he faces up to the destructive Halasima, who has racked up 35 tackle-breaks in his five games since shifting to centre.
Te Maire Martin vs Isaiya Katoa: After a month out, TMM was sensational against Manly with three try assists and the second-last pass for the Warriors’ other three tries. His running game is also an underrated asset. Katoa, though, provides a clear advantage for the Dolphins with an elite long kicking game and cool-headed playmaking — but will the young captain handle the pressure of a finals debut?
Wayde Egan vs Jeremy Marshall-King: Two of craftiest No.9s in the game are set for a fascinating — and incredibly vital — duel on the finals stage. Adding to the intrigue, Egan has been touted as a possible Kiwis World Cup pick. Marshall-King, part of New Zealand’s squad last year, has been lauded for his 2026 form but only has one try assist while Egan boasts 12.
Erin Clark vs Morgan Knowles: Clark has cranked up a notch in recent weeks and was the best forward on the field last week — he looks primed for a huge finals series and has increased his ball-playing influence. British veteran Knowles has been an unsung hero for the Dolphins; he’s a defensive workhorse but has only made 100-plus running metres twice.
Last time they met
The Warriors suffered a third two-point loss in four matches, courtesy of a wild 26-24 result in favour of the Dolphins in Round 17 at a slippery Suncorp Stadium in front of more than 40,000.
The visitors led by eight after 20 minutes, trailed by eight with 20 minutes to go and gamely battled back to hit the front late through Sam Healey.
But with less than four minutes left to defend their hard-earned advantage, the Warriors surrendered it again excruciatingly easy as Selwyn Cobbo scrambled over for the leveller.
Jamayne Isaako nailed the match-winning conversion from out wide with two minutes left.
The Dolphins celebrated a gutsy result that saw them draw level with the Warriors in equal-second after losing No.7 linchpin Isaiya Katoa to injury midway through the first half. The Warriors fanbase’s post-match venting focused on diabolical displays from Adam Pompey and Ali Leiataua.
Why the Wahs will win: This is a daunting environment for the Dolphins to make their finals debut — and if the Warriors come out with the same intensity that characterised their iconic win over Penrith, they will have the visitors beaten in the first 20 minutes. If the Warriors’ middle forwards set the tone, everything else will fall into place.
Why the Wahs will lose: If the Warriors haven’t shored up their defensive frailties of recent weeks, the Dolphins are as well-equipped as any team in the NRL to exploit them. There’s plenty of pressure on the Warriors as a home favourite and they can’t afford to start slow again.
The Punt: Head to head — Warriors $1.55, Dolphins $2.45; Points start — Warriors -4.5; Total Line — 47.5 points.
Best Anytime Tryscorer Options: Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad ($1.91); Jamayne Isaako ($2.05); Leka Halasima ($2.40); Herbie Farnworth ($2.70); Jacob Laban ($3.70); Te Maire Martin ($3.90); Max Plath ($5.50).
The Verdict: This rivalry has consistently delivered and that’s set to continue with the stakes raised. But in a watershed campaign, the Warriors have gone up a gear in their biggest games — in Melbourne, against Penrith at home — and seem laser-focused on doing the same again. They’ll be too strong with a tidal wave of support behind them. Warriors by 8