Stats the spirit: Running the Round 17 numbers 📊📉
Facts, figures, trends, standout performances and milestones after a heartbreaker for the Warriors against the Dolphins.
Wahs-Phins rivalry goes to another level
Close game record hurting Warriors
Laban comes of age
Te Maire stuffs the stats sheet
Looking back at Dallin’s first 100
Shades of ’25?
It’s Monday morning and that 26-24 loss to the Dolphins in one of the most absorbing games of the season is still hurting.
The Warriors led 12-4 when the Dolphins lost linchpin Isaiya Katoa to injury just 13 minutes, while they pegged back an eight-point deficit to hit the front with five minutes to go. But they couldn’t close it out, allowing Selwyn Cobbo to score an equaliser before Jamayne Isaako buried the match-winning conversion two minutes from fulltime.
The bulk of the match stats hint at the knife’s edge encounter that it was. Possession was split evenly, the Dolphins had the barest of run metres (1,726 to 1,685) and post-contact metres (540 to 530) advantages, while the Warriors had a higher completion rate (80% to 77%) and a superior average set distance (42.14 metres to 38.37).
The Dolphins had the better of it discipline-wise, winning the penalty count 2-0 and earning six set restarts to three. The most striking discrepancy, though, was the Dolphins’ line-break (8-4) and tackle-break (44-30) advantages.
The 10-5 Warriors remain in second spot for the 11th straight week, but it was a crucial missed opportunity to make a break on the chasing pack – and gain on a Panthers side that lost for the second week in a row. The Dolphins joined the Warriors on 24 competition points, as did fellow Round 17 winners the Roosters and Knights.
A rivalry blossoms
The Warriors and Dolphins both cruised to home wins by 20-plus margins over the other during the latter’s 2023 debut season. But since then, the clubs have produced a succession of barnburners and nail-biters.
All six Warriors-Dolphins showdowns from 2024-26 have been decided by margins of four points or less.
Did Saturday’s heart-stopping loss sting a bit more than usual? That’s probably because in each of the Dolphins’ three wins over the past three seasons, they’ve hit the front in the 78th minute or later to snatch two-point victories.
Meanwhile, just two points separate the clubs after four wins apiece – the Warriors have scored 174 points and the Dolphins 172, while they’ve both scored 31 tries.
Jamayne Isaako’s field day in this rivalry continued with two tries a pair of sideline conversions, including the match-winner. In eight games for the Dolphins against the Warriors, he’s scored nine tries and scored 82 points.
Dallin Watene-Zelezniak has scored seven tries in as many games against the Dolphins and Herbie Farnworth has crossed seven times for the Dolphins in six appearances against the Warriors after both players dotted down in the first half on Saturday.
The 40,465-strong crowd at Suncorp Stadium was the biggest yet for a match that always draws well, bumping the average over 30,000.
Close but no cigar
While the Warriors have drawn praise for pushing Penrith to the limit and now going all the way with the streaking Dolphins despite a slew of injuries, the emerging elephant in the room is their inability to get the job done in close contests.
The Warriors’ third two-point loss in four outings gives them a 1-3 record in games decided by less than eight points this year, the only win coming against the Dolphins on Anzac Day.
Compounding that concern, their opponents were the last to score in each loss – the Panthers scored a try in the 70th minute, the Sharks kicked a two-point field goal in the 79th minute and Cobbo’s equaliser for the Dolphins came in the 78th minute.
Winning tight encounters was a key factor in the Warriors’ 2025 success, going 8-4 in games decided by a converted try or less. They were 6-1 at the same stage last season…with Luke Metcalf having played every game.
Laban the labourer
Jacob Laban scored the top Kingz Container Crew player rating against the Dolphins with 8.5, starring on the attacking side of the ball with his fifth NRL try and laying on another – both thanks to his outstanding aerial ability, latching onto a pair of Chanel Harris-Tavita bombs.
